Conference. Otc.23. Friday.

Managing Political Risk; a Cross Sectoral Conference on Political Risk Measurement and Mitigation, organized by a group of talented and dedicated Fletcher students. A unique opportunity aimed at convening renowned professionals in four main areas: Energy & Resource Nationalism; Political Risk & Business Intelligence, Investment & Trade Finance in Conflict-Affected Countries; and Investment Guarantees & Political Risk Insurance.

Brightly lit by the colored leaves in the New England trees, the day starts early. Professionals, faculty and students are welcomed with a hot coffee and a warm smile. Neatly decorated tables anxiously await the panelists that will engage in lively discussions throughout the day. Around the room, the organizers of the conference make sure every detail is taken care of. In the first row, note takers stretch their fingers. In the back, ushers guide the guests and panelists to their designated seats. In the midst of tension, lots of smiles fill the room.

Dr. Louis T. Wells, Herbert F. Johnson Professor of International Management from the Harvard Business School cheerfully kicks the meeting off with the difficult task of defining Political Risk, or not, and exemplifying ways in which it can be created or avoided. In brief, Political Risk is basically “things government does that lower investors’ rate of return”. He sets the stage in an elegant way, and makes sure his players are ready for the show.

Taking advantage of the development in communication networks, the conference main points and discussions will be broadcast live through its blog and on Twitter(@politicalrisk with the hashtag #MPR2009), a medium that can be used for posing questions in case you are following it from afar. If you at the Conference, be sure to join the LinkedIn Group and keep in touch with professionals and students interested in this field.

A long day lies ahead and we are all looking forward to every minute of it. Come and join us.

Ter. 20/out. Tempo.

Vou dar um tempo.

O prazer de escrever tem sido preenchido pela sensação de dever.

E assim não é gostoso.

Volto quando tiver algo a contar.

Quando tiver aquela vontade de brincar com as palavras.

Aí sim.

Aos que têm me acompanhado, que sejam felizes.

Aos que não, também.

E fico por aqui.

Beijo no coração e abraço apertado para os queridos.

Fri. 23/10. Apagão.

An electrical fire erupted today in underground utility tunnels near Medford Square, blasting two manhole covers 25 feet upward and sending flames high into the air.

No injuries have been reported and the subterranean fire has been extinguished, but not before knocking out electricity to 7,000 utility customers. More than half of those customers had service restored by early afternoon, but those who remain without power may have a long wait.

http://www.boston.com/video/viral_page/?/services/player/bcpid21913462001&bctid=45090549001

Quinta. 22/10. Library.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

Eu amo a biblioteca.

De verdade.

Wed. 14/10. FPRC.

Come join the best minds in business, politics and investment as they debate and analyze political risk mitigation strategies at the conference “Managing Political Risk,” which will take place Friday, October 23rd at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. Conference panelists will include OPIC executives Rod Morris, Vice President Political Risk Insurance, and Barbara Day, Acting Vice President Investment Funds.

Sponsored by The Center for Emerging Market Enterprises, the Fletcher Political Risk Forum at The Fletcher School, Tufts University with support from ExxonMobil, this Boston forum will bring together over 100 professionals and feature panels on energy and resource nationalism, business intelligence, investment and trade finance in conflict affected countries, and political risk insurance. Two keynote speakers, Dr. Louis Wells, Professor of International Management at Harvard Business School, and Dr. Llewellyn Howell, Emeritus Professor of International Management at Thunderbird School of Global Management will open the morning and afternoon sessions, respectively.

To register and for more information, including a schedule and list of panelists, please visit: http://fletcher.tufts.edu/politicalrisk09/. For additional insight on the conference content, visit the conference blog at http://blogs.uit.tufts.edu/managingpoliticalrisk/. Registration for this event will close COB Tuesday, October 20th.

OPIC was established as an agency of the U.S. government in 1971. It helps U.S. businesses invest overseas, fosters economic development in new and emerging markets, complements the private sector in managing risks associated with foreign direct investment, and supports U.S. foreign policy. Because OPIC charges market-based fees for its products, it operates on a self-sustaining basis at no net cost to taxpayers.

OPIC’s political risk insurance and financing help U.S. businesses of all sizes invest in more than 150 emerging markets and developing nations worldwide. Over the agency's 38-year history, OPIC has supported $188 billion worth of investments that have helped developing countries to generate over 830,000 host-country jobs. OPIC projects have also generated $72 billion in U.S. exports and supported more than 273,000 American jobs.

13/10. Tue. Colorido.

Outubro.

Mês de enfeitar o jardim com fantasmas voando, espantalhos rodando, cemitérios repletos de teias de aranha. Fim de semana de apple picking e passeios entre árvores coloridas. Feriado interessante e colorido. E cidra de maçã e doughnut de maçã são uma delícia.

Moday. 12/10. Columbus Day.

Many countries in the New World and elsewhere celebrate the anniversary of Christopher Columbus's arrival in theAmericas, which occurred on October 12, 1492 in the Julian calendar and October 21, 1492 in the modern Gregorian calendar, as an official holiday. The day is celebrated as Columbus Day in the United States, as Día de la Raza in many countries in the Americas, as Día de las Culturas (Day of the Cultures) in Costa Rica, as Discovery Day in the Bahamas, as Día de la Hispanidad and Fiesta Nacional in Spain, as Día de las Américas (Day of the Americas) inUruguay and as Día de la Resistencia Indígena (Day of Indigenous Resistance) in Venezuela. These holidays have been celebrated unofficially since the late 18th century, and officially in various countries since the early 20th century.

11/10. Domingo. Apples.

Marcela, amiga da faculdade, veio visitar.

Dia divertido, repleto de atividades.

Sab. Amritsar. 10/10.

Amritsar, fronteira da Índia com o Paquistão. Um dos últimos passeios pela terrinha de lá. Eis o vídeo.

09/10. Nobel. Friday.

"I agree that the timing of the prize is a double-edged sword. If the prize is annual (or biennial), no doubt that if he had been nominated in the next event, the criticism would have been different (which is not to say that I agree with the theory that Obama has done nothing up until now: he has done a lot, but obviously only sees the ones who want to see it).

In his nomination, there is a very subtle political / economic interest in stabilizing or not a nation’s policy. A reward like this is not given to someone just because they are nice. There are lots of strategies and interests behind it.

Everything that the Americans and other people think about it has already been thought by the representatives in Oslo. And maybe this feeling is what they were aiming for.

We must agree that this award is "strangely" precipitated. First, because it brings with it a sense of regret and dismantling of the previous policy adopted by Bush and his followers, it is an “anti-award” for them. And second because it inflates even more the egos of the ones who support Obama. The dust is still up in the air and suddenly comes a whirlwind like that. In this current scenario, anything can happen. There are many particles flying around and only time will tell where they land.

The best sentence so far, is Aristotle’s: “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts”. In this particular case, there is no doubt about it.

On the other hand, it is easy and boring when it is obvious. And the obvious does not guarantee media. There is lot to be thought of when making this decision. Think of the stock market, fox example. If it is downright bullish, hardly any news will reverse its behavior and mood - in real, it gives no importance to news in general. Now when it hits a resistance or a support, any major event will bring changes to it - and it is much more exciting and more impactful in the media. And "Obama's Market" has not yet gotten rid of its resistances or supports. So the time is right (speaking in terms of media)".

Por Walter Tabax, tio da Kika.

8/10. Amigos. Quinta.

Adoro brasileiros.

E amo ser brasileira.

E gosto de amigos dos brasileiros.

Mais ainda dos brasileiros amigos dos brasileiros.

E me divirto com as coincidências, idas e vindas, tropeções e trapalhadas.

André, primo da Beer, amiga da turma da ADESG, é residente da Medicina e jogou pólo com o marido da irmã do Dunia, casal que agora mora em Boston, onde Dunia faz sua pós graduação e lembra com carinho dos anos de colégio ao lado do Pimenta, do Marcelão, do Cocô, do Tomate e do Marcão, estes últimos que moraram com a Kika na época da República da Unicamp e foram amigos do Dunia nos anos de Poli.

E no rodar dos dias, o mundo fica mais próximo, e os graus de separação passam a ser escritos com casas decimais, porque já deixaram de ser 6 anos e anos atrás.

Quarta. 07 de outro. Oto Blog.

A Fletcher School tem um blog chamado Fletcher Reflections.

É lá onde os alunos deixam suas opiniões sobre notícias, eventos internacionais e o dia-a-dia da vida acadêmica. É lá onde eu escrevo duas vezes por semana e recebo $15 por post. Por enquanto, o único emprego que arrumei. Até babysitting tá complicado.

http://news.fletcher.tufts.edu/reflections/

Ter. 6/10. Eu.

Beijo para voces!

5/10. Mo. IPO

As the largest initial public offering on a U.S. exchange in 18 months, the share sale of Banco Santander (Brazil) will likely attract plenty of demand even as some investors balk at the price of the stock.

* Santander’s Brazilian unit is expected to launch a $8.78 billion IPO, the largest U.S.-listed offering in 18 months.
* Pepsi Bottling Group, the largest bottler of PepsiCo drinks, will report third-quarter earnings. Investors will no doubt be looking for details regarding the upcoming acquisition of the bottler by PepsiCo.
* Analysts expect Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and KFC parent Yum Brands to report weak third-quarter same-store sales in the United States and China, its largest markets.
* At the Reuters Global Wealth Management Summit expect interviews with JP Morgan Chase U.S. Private Bank CEO Catherine Keating, SG Private Banking Asia CEO for Singapore and South Asia Pierre Baer and HSBC Managing Director and Head of Personal Financial Services Godfrey Swain.

Reuters.

4/10. Dom. Bye.

Com ovos e bacon se faz um brunch.

Com tijolo vermelho, construiu-se Harvard.

De barcos à vela se faz um dia de sol em Boston.

De sol e céu zul pinta-se o retrato de uma família feliz conversando no parque.

De gargalhadas enche-se uma tarde à tôa.

De olhos vermelhos deixam-se os seres amados.

De overbooking, ganha-se jantar com vista para o rio.

De boas lembranças enchem-se as páginas da vida.

E de despedidas faz-se um blog.

Sáb. 3 de out. Papai.

Dia de visita. Pap's, Mutti e Walter vieram passar o sábado chuvoso na pacata Boston.

Dia de passeio de trolley, almoço, café em casa, descanso, voltinha pela faculdade.

Noite de lua cheia, de festival asiático.

Mid-Autumn Moon Festival. Noite de repartir a lua com quem você ama, mesmo que do outro lado do continente.

O Festival da Lua acontece no 15o dia do 8o mês lunar do calendário chinês (normalmente em meados de setembro no calendário gregoriano), que coincide com o eqüinocio de outono do calendário solar. Esse é o momento ideal, quando a lua está cheia e em seu maior esplendor, para comemorar a colheita do verão.

Friday. 02/out. Middlesex.

Eu sei, eu sei... Não resisti e já escrevi das Olímpiadas lá atrás... Que notícia gostosa!

A comemoração foi assim.

Com gostinho de Brasil.

1 de out. Quinta. Outono.

Outono chegou há alguns dias. No trajeto até a escola, árvores coloridas se impõem frente ao céu cinza, anunciando a chuva que se aproxima. Verde, amarelo, laranja, vermelho, vazio. Em alguns poucos dias o vermelho das flores deixará de fazer inveja às frutas e irá brincar com o vento até achar um cantinho aconchegante com os gravetos no chão. E assim a natureza segue seu ciclo.

Enquanto escrevo, decido que cor de esmalte passar. A cada manhã uma nova árvore muda seu visual. Em poucas semanas a paisagem alegre observada com um sorriso da janela de casa será outra.

A brevidade dos fatos e o caráter transitório das sensações.

Lição número 1 do campo de meditação.

E assim a vida segue seu ciclo.

Wed. 30/09. Rio.

Tue. 29/09/09. Patriota.

Brazil: Host of the 2016 Olympics. Home to a Professional Diplomatic Corps.

Ambassador of Brazil to the United States Antonio de Aguiar Patriota addressed Brazilian grand strategy and foreign policy developments at the latest Charles Francis Adams Lecture, "Brazil - USA: Bilateral, Regional And Global Dimensions,” on September 30, 2009 at the Fletcher School. The main takeaway was the newly independent character of Brazilian foreign policy, a country which, as Dean Bosworth put it, is proud to have “one of the best foreign services in the world”. He pointed to the fact that Brazil has opened dozens of new embassies, and all of its Ambassadors are professionals, not political appointees.

In comparison to other BRIC countries (Russia, India and China), Brazil is the only one that is self-sufficient in food, water, and energy, just as the U.S. was 150 years ago. It is also the only BRIC in which inequality has decreased. In the social and cultural arena, IBSA (India, Brazil, and South Africa), three large multicultural democracies, have signed a treaty that will increase these countries’ soft power in the upcoming years, as already demonstrated by Brazil’s increasing presence in summits and conferences around the world.

Ambassador Patriota expressed a positive view of the Obama administration’s openness to negotiations with countries with which it has not had a dialogue in the past, such as Trinidad and Tobago. He defined new milestones to explain the U.S.’s wisdom and dominance, which rose with the fall of the Berlin Wall and has faded since the Wall Street collapse. In view of the discussions at the recent G-20 summit in Pittsburgh, he believes that the G-8 is becoming obsolete. It is neither dead nor being replaced by the G-20, but it is on the way to becoming a club for Europe and the U.S. to discuss specific issues. He pointed out that Brazil is a top contributor in the new G-20 group.

Brazil is a vital regional player, maintaining productive relationships with its ten neighbors. Stability, democracy, and economic and social progress are the goals of the triangular diplomacy conducted by Brazil and the US with Latin American and Caribbean countries in order to develop capabilities such as biofuels production.

In response to a question about the proposed U.S. military presence in Colombia, the Ambassador recognized the U.S.’s right to conduct its own military relations with other countries, but stressed that Brazil and others in the region are requesting assurance that U.S. military operations will be restricted to within Colombia’s borders. Colin Canham III, a first-year MIB student, was disappointed by Ambassador Patriota’s response to this question, which failed to address the enormous diplomatic elephant in the room, Venezuela. Nonetheless, Canham was impressed by the fact that Brazil seems poised to take the lead on a new progressive global movement in light of its success in reducing poverty, repaying its debts, and continuing to strengthen trade/finance integration and anti-corruption. Brazil is now “almost” a creditor, has a stable currency, and was largely unaffected by the current financial crisis due to its low degree of dependence on foreign trade.

As Brazilians look forward to hosting the 2016 Olympic Games, they can take pride in a diplomatic corps that is dedicating so much effort to carrying out Brazil’s foreign policy.

Mon. 28/set. FPRC

The Center for Emerging Market Enterprises and the Fletcher Political Risk Forum, in partnership with ExxonMobil, are pleased to announce the conference “Managing Political Risk: A Cross-Sector Conference on Political Risk Management and Mitigation,” which will be held at The Fletcher School, Tufts University on Friday, October 23, 2009.

About the Conference

Political risk mitigation techniques have become strategic components to enterprise risk management as uncertainty surrounding government regulation, expropriation, currency inconvertibility, and political violence becomes more common in today’s volatile economic environment. This conference will create a platform to host industry leaders to discuss the most salient political risks to investments in the emerging markets. An interdisciplinary approach resonates with The Fletcher School’s strength in bridging academic and professional expertise in business, law, finance, conflict resolution and natural resource policy.

The Center for Emerging Market Enterprises and the Fletcher Political Risk Forum at The Fletcher School, Tufts University will provide a forum for the dissemination of ideas and best practices on political risk mitigation for business professionals and graduate students in business and international affairs from the Boston area and beyond. The conference aims to foster a cross-sector discussion on political risk measurement and mitigation trends and techniques and address timely political risks facing international investors and businesses. A comprehensive conversation on political risk mitigation will feature moderated panels on energy and resource nationalism, political risk and business intelligence, investment and trade finance in conflict affected countries, and political risk insurance.

Attendees will include corporate risk managers, investment managers, financial and country analysts, underwriters, and academics, amongst others.

How to Attend

Those who plan to attend the conference MUST register at the conference website. CEME and FPRF welcome Fletcher community attendance. Student space is limited, and we will request business dress and require confirmation of attendance in advance of the conference date. Professional interest in political risk is preferred. Please forward to your colleagues to spread the word beyond Fletcher as well.

For More Information

Please visit the Managing Political Risk Conference Website and Blog, or contact CEME.